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Burry's broader argument about semiconductor stocks, especially Micron, is not entirely wrong; memory and momentum chip stocks are priced as if nothing can go wrong
60% confidenceCustom-ASIC HBM demand will grow 82% in 2026, a third of the total HBM market
60% confidenceBurry's worry deserves respect; hyperscalers may be overbuilding and some AI computing could become a cheap commodity
60% confidenceA DCF model puts Micron's fair value at $1,527.88, more than 50% above the then-current price, leaning on the Anthropic partnership and the $250 billion US manufacturing buildout
60% confidenceMicron is becoming an 'infrastructure toll-bridge' rather than a cyclical chipmaker, and the stock should re-rate from its current forward multiple toward an infrastructure-like 16-19.5x
60% confidenceMicron is cyclical like no other; the stock's rally reached historically extreme levels driven by FOMO and greater fool theory, not fundamentals, and AI chip stocks face a 30% correction
60% confidenceMicron doesn't need to beat SK hynix at supplying Nvidia; it just needs to hold its roughly 21-22% HBM revenue share as hyperscalers build custom AI chips needing HBM independent of Nvidia's GPU cycle
60% confidence