Shopify's Standout 2025: The Launchpad for a New Era of Commerce in 2026

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• Q1 2026 stock-based compensation expected to be $140 million

  80% confidence

• 2025 was Shopify at full throttle - driving compounding growth, while laying the rails for the new era of AI commerce

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 revenue expected to grow at a low-thirties percentage rate year-over-year, similar to Q4 2025

  80% confidence

• AI is reshaping how buyers discover and purchase products

  80% confidence

• Ended 2025 with strength across all merchant sizes, regions, and channels, setting up well for 2026

  80% confidence

• Strong Q4 performance with revenue up 31% year-over-year and 19% free cash flow margin, bringing 2025 to 30% revenue growth and 17% free cash flow margin

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 free cash flow margin expected to be in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below Q1 2025

  80% confidence

• 2026 will be the year of the builders, and we'll be powering them - from first sale to full scale

  80% confidence

• Launching share repurchase program from a position of financial and operating strength with unchanged capital allocation principles prioritizing growth while remaining disciplined, flexible, and focused on long-term value

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 operating expenses expected to be 37% to 38% of revenue

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 gross profit dollars expected to grow at a high-twenties percentage rate year-over-year

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source