Uber: From Cash Burner to Cash-Flow Utility
View original at finance.yahoo.comUber: From Cash Burner to Cash-Flow Utility This article first appeared on GuruFocus. It has been a fascinating journey watching Uber Technologies evolve from a cash-incinerating startup into what I now consider a dominant, cash-generating utility…
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Rating Uber stock a Buy with high-conviction accumulation zone between $70 and $80, with 12 to 18 month price target at $110, implying roughly 35-40% upside
80% confidenceUber expects to grow Gross Bookings in the mid-teens and EBITDA in the high-30s to 40% range
80% confidenceUber accumulated roughly $32 billion in operating losses prior to mid-2023
80% confidenceRestaurant delivery represents a $2 trillion Total Addressable Market while general commerce represents a $12 trillion TAM
80% confidenceUber operates the largest mobility and delivery network on the planet with nearly 190 million monthly active platform consumers across 70 countries
80% confidenceUber has scaled its advertising business to over $1 billion in annualized revenue
80% confidenceInstant Retail vertical is running at a $12 billion annualized gross bookings rate
80% confidenceUber is positioning itself to be the essential infrastructure to the autonomous future rather than an inevitable loser in the robotaxi wars
80% confidenceManagement describes the gap between Adjusted EBITDA and operating income as due to one-off or non-recurring items, specifically legal reserves, regulatory settlements, and volatility in insurance reserves
80% confidenceSuburban markets are growing 1.5 to 3 times faster than core metro areas
80% confidenceWaymo vehicles on Uber network in Phoenix and San Francisco are seeing utilization rates significantly higher than human-driven cars
80% confidenceIn Uber's top 10 markets, only about 15% of the adult population uses the service
80% confidenceOnly about 20% of Uber's user base utilizes both the Mobility and Delivery platforms, but users who engage with both verticals spend roughly three times more than single-platform users
80% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| Uber Technologies · instant retail gross bookings | 12 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · adjusted ebitda | 2.3 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · adjusted ebitda growth | 33 percent |
| Uber Technologies · advertising revenue | 1 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · autonomous vehicle partnerships | 14 partnerships |
| Uber Technologies · cross platform usage rate | 20 percent |
| Uber Technologies · daily trips | 38 million |
| Uber Technologies · deferred tax asset release | 4 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · delivery bookings growth | 24 percent |
| Uber Technologies · free cash flow | 9 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · gross bookings growth | 21 percent |
| Uber Technologies · market penetration top 10 markets | 15 percent |
| Uber Technologies · monthly active platform consumers | 190 million |
| Uber Technologies · net income | 16 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · operating countries | 70 countries |
| Uber Technologies · operating income | 1.1 billion_USD |
| Uber Technologies · revenue | 13.5 billion_USD |