Philip Morris targets 5–7% organic net revenue growth for 2026 while expanding smoke-free leadership

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• Excise tax changes in Japan and U.S. regulatory developments for ZYN are key drivers for smoke-free volume growth reacceleration

  80% confidence

• Total net revenues reached over $40 billion in 2025 with 41.5% or close to $17 billion generated by smoke-free business

  80% confidence

• Cigarette volume forecast to decline by around 3% in 2026

  80% confidence

• 2025 was another outstanding year for PMI with leadership in smoke-free products and sustained growth

  80% confidence

• U.S. market deployed different promotion intensity in Q3 and Q4, with some schemes not repeated by PMI decision

  80% confidence

• IQOS drove core performance with both shipments and adjusted IMS growing around 11%

  80% confidence

• Both ZYN ex-Nordics and VEEV more than doubled shipment volumes in international markets

  80% confidence

• Smoke-free shipment and adjusted IMS volumes expected to grow in high single digits in 2026

  80% confidence

• State excise tax increases on nicotine pouches would be counterproductive to health benefits these products provide

  80% confidence

• IQOS showing strong performance in Italy, Germany, Spain, and new markets like Taiwan

  80% confidence

• PMI forecasts 2026 organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7% and organic operating income growth of 7% to 9%

  80% confidence

• Operating cash flow targeted at around $13.5 billion for 2026

  80% confidence

• PMI looks forward with confidence to 2026 and beyond

  80% confidence

• Organic top line and operating income growth were in line with forecast ranges set at start of 2025, and currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth exceeded expectations by 1.7 points

  80% confidence

• PMI ambitions to continue being very efficient on costs and targeting efficiency from AI in the future

  80% confidence

• PMI targets leverage ratio of close to 2x by end of 2026

  80% confidence

• 27 markets surpassed the 50% smoke-free net revenue milestone

  80% confidence

• Adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54 was at high end of last guidance range despite lower-than-expected currency tailwind

  80% confidence

• Increased competitive activity in Japan but IQOS strongly holds share and continues growth

  80% confidence

• Currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth projected at 7.5% to 9.5% for 2026, translating to $8.39 to $8.54 including currency benefits

  80% confidence

• Japan excise tax will cause some IMS shipment distortions with potential consumer buying ahead, but over longer period PMI will achieve targets

  80% confidence