Instacart outlines $9.45B–$9.6B Q4 GTV target while expanding enterprise and AI initiatives

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• NYC represents a small percentage of GTV and Instacart expects to navigate regulatory changes successfully

  80% confidence

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $285 million to $295 million

  80% confidence

• 75% of the market is still in large baskets, $75 and above

  80% confidence

• GAAP net income was $144 million, up 22% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA also grew 22% year-over-year to $278 million

  80% confidence

• Q4 GTV is anticipated to range between $9.45 billion to $9.6 billion, representing 9% to 11% year-over-year growth

  80% confidence

• Advertising and other revenue will return to double-digit growth in 2026

  80% confidence

• Price parity retailers are growing 10 percentage points faster versus marked-up retailers

  80% confidence

• Stock-based compensation in Q3 was $82 million, down $24 million quarter-over-quarter, and expected to normalize to Q2 2025 levels in Q4

  80% confidence

• Exclusivity with retailers is less important than the depth of enterprise relationships

  80% confidence

• Instacart continues to grow in markets where Amazon competes and is not seeing a shift in basket composition

  80% confidence

• Q3 orders reached 83.4 million, up 14% year-over-year, driving GTV of $9.17 billion, up 10% year-over-year

  80% confidence

• Large basket growth (75% of the market) remains consistent

  80% confidence

• International expansion is the right moment, taking existing technology and extending it to retailers beyond North America

  80% confidence

• Instacart is confident in reaching 4%-5% long-term ad take rates through platform and ecosystem expansion

  80% confidence

• Instacart's storefront or white label e-commerce technologies now power more than 350 retailer e-commerce storefronts

  80% confidence

• Instacart+ is a critical part of overall strategy with continued growth and engagement

  80% confidence

• Instacart is the leading online grocery marketplace with a best-in-class suite of enterprise technologies for retailers and a growing advertising ecosystem

  80% confidence

• Three strategic investment areas are affordability, accelerating enterprise, and ads and data

  80% confidence

• Instacart drove over $1 billion of ads and other revenue over the past 12 months

  80% confidence

• Over 80% of Instacart's business is nonexclusive today, and the majority of those have an enterprise relationship

  80% confidence